Near-Peer Employment of Snipers

On February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin authorized a “special military operation.” It initiated combat operations with Russia beginning coordinated strikes on Ukrainian cities. Throughout the history of military operations, it’s rare that a commanding general becomes a casualty of war. But, on March 2, 2022, Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky was the first high-ranking leader to be killed in action during the Russo-Ukraine conflict. A sniper delivered the fatal shot from 1.5 kilometers (.9 mile), as Ukraine forces were repelling a Russian attack.

A Ukrainian sniper has killed one of the top generals of Russia (representative image). Photograph:( Reuters )

The death of Sukhovetsky brings heightened awareness to the application of snipers in a near-peer fight. Properly equipped and employed snipers will decisively engage select targets and targets of opportunity. Snipers’ discriminatory fires have a more devastating effect on the enemy. They degrade tempo, morale, and shape the battlefield.

For nearly ten years, the US Army has shifted its tactical mindset from counterinsurgency to a near-peer conflict. As capabilities improve, the “close area” fight extends its range. Adversaries employ multiple layers of operational stand-off. Snipers, in-depth, will cover a significantly farther distance, allowing them to penetrate operational stand-off with precision fires. Snipers counter the operational stand-off by use high-powered weapons that deliver precision fires between 800 and 1800 meters.

A target’s positive identification (PID) at these extended distances is challenging to obtain with standard observation equipment on the modern battlefield. For example, most high-end spotting scopes have a maximum of 40-60x magnification with diminishing clarity as magnification increases.

Therefore, identifying an individual or facial recognition at 1.5 kilometers is almost impossible. To combat this, the US Army Sniper Course (USASC) collaborated with the Advanced Situational Awareness (ASA) course before being shut down. The ASA course taught enhanced observational techniques that help identify potential leaders by determining behavioral cues often linked to proxemics of associations between individuals.

The potential target or high-value individual (HVI) is recognized by examining indicators through mimicry, admiration or deference, direction, and entourage (MADE).

Mimicry is when an individual or group mirrors or matches another individual’s attributes or characteristics. Mimicry occurs because a person may admire status and attempt to attain the same status.
Admiration is outward respect or affection when an individual or group holds another individual or group to a higher status. Traditionally displayed through overt gestures of respect (IE, bowing, saluting, or displacing as they walk by)
Direction can be given through movements as subtle as a glance, or as overt as grandiose flailing. Noticing the trigger is key to this method.
Entourages are the last method of discerning status. Humans have the tendency to gravitate and become submissive to those in authoritative positions. Thus showing the presence of an HVI.

Snipers spend countless hours studying and observing crowds, learning to recognize “patterns of life.” The enhanced observational skills acquired through sniper training are another benefit of employing snipers for combat operations. Snipers provide extended periods of observation while remaining undetected from the enemy and enemy assets.

Another variable to understand is target information, as there are several methods to obtain the distance to a target. A trained sniper knows how to utilize a combination method for range estimation to gain greater accuracy. The two most common methods are laser range finder (LRF) and the mil-relation formula. All militaries commonly use the convenience of an LRF, and some have planned passive counter-measures against it.

For example, Russia has outfitted its T-90 main battle tank with Shtora-1 to protect against active lasers. US Army Sniper Course (USASC) includes analog methods into its core tasks, as snipers need to operate low-tech, low-signature in any environment. The mil-relation formula helps achieve that desired effect. Unfortunately, the mil-relation formula is accurate to a certain distance and needs to be supplemented with other methods such as map references. Determining a precise distance becomes more difficult the farther the target is.

It’s difficult for a sniper to deliver long-range precision fires on targets close to a mile away. The direct fire engagement process is a systematic approach that helps snipers deliver a high probability of hits on a target. Several factors are considered before a sniper takes a shot, with the most significant one being atmospherics. Wind speed and direction are considered from the sniper’s position to the target. A common practice is to break the distance traveled into thirds—the first two-thirds of the bullet’s trajectory account for 80% of the wind influence (Fig. 1). A sniper must have a thorough understanding of external ballistics and what is happening to the bullet once it leaves the muzzle. Understanding the atmospheric influence and countering it separates a sniper from an expert marksman.

After a sniper obtains information on the operating environment and target, they apply the decision-making process. Observe, orient, decide, act (OODA) is a continuous process or loop that enables the sniper to determine a reasonable conclusion with limited information. Snipers learn heuristics to create a mental shortcut to enhance problem-solving. Institutionally trained snipers understand atmospherics, geographics, proxemics, kinesics, and autonomics. By understanding heuristics and the OODA loop (Fig. 2), the sniper can speed up decision-making by filling in already known details.

Snipers help leverage a forward posture by expanding the battle-space. Snipers serve as “inside forces” that operate inside the enemy’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) zones. Advanced adversary capabilities and capacity require large amounts of low-signature, lethal “inside forces” that maneuver rapidly. Snipers provide options and solutions in large-scale combat operations, as these low-tech, low-signature forces impose a commanders’ will on the enemy. The Army’s most foundational strategic role is the capability and capacity to prevail in large-scale combat, and snipers help facilitate that victory.