Whether tank companies in the assault or cavalry squadrons conducting zone reconnaissance, the Armor Branch fights on its fuel-tanks and ammo-racks. Increased consumption, large maneuver spaces, and long lines of communication to the Brigade Support Area, reduce the responsiveness and continuity of logistics operations compared with those of the other combat arms. In our Squadron, we identified accurate anticipation of requirements as a major stumbling block to our troops’ maneuver operations. Tactical operations, inconsistent reporting, and poor systems led to inaccurate forecasting of logistical needs. This created a back-up at the CTCP that then resulted in inadequate pushes of resupply from the FTCP. We needed consistency and accuracy – insert, CAVLOG.
The CAVLOG is part of our “The Rucksack” Series providing proven tools to improve your life and leadership. It includes unit-level products, productivity hacks, and other professional development resources. The CAVLOG and this article were created by Capt. Gregor MacGregor and Capt. Nigel Liefveld.
We set out to create a standardized method of logistical projection. Simply put, what will we need to sustain the fight? Key to this was not losing focus of the end-goal, improving operations to fight and win. To do this, we need the ability to track logistics statuses; compare supplies on-hand versus our unit basic loads (UBL); and project 24, 48, and 72 hour requirements based on the type of operations.
Framework
CASCOM created the Operations Logistics (OPLOG) Planner as an online resource for projecting logistics requirements at the operational and strategic levels. It uses differentiated rates of consumption based on Joint Phases and Army Full Spectrum Operations. The tool’s capability to build friendly and enemy units down to the battalion-level by MTOE provided data to inform our own projections.
Using the OPLOG planner as a guide, we built our own task organization, the enemy task organization we expected to face in our upcoming decisive action rotation at the National Training Center, and filled in the weather and terrain conditions expected. Next, we built the phases of the operation by roughly approximating our actions to the joint phases and full spectrum operations classifications at higher echelons. We then ran simulations with changed variables to tease out the multipliers for each type of operation. By running the same variables through each type of operation (staging, defense, and offense) we were able to determine the OPLOG’s change in consumption between each type of mission. These multipliers became the first base for our projected supply consumption changes between neutral, reconnaissance, and security operations.
CAVLOG Projections and Use
How it Works
CAVLOG uses real time consumption data reported by the maneuver troops to project requirements. The CAVLOG user enters data received from the subordinate units into the “Current Yellow 1” data sheet. The sheet compares the on-hand, consumed, and capacity values by each unit to produce the values in the “LOG Projections” sheet. Consumption over the previous 24 hours and OPTEMPO selection produce a Delta, the amount of resupply required to bring the unit back to capacity for that supply.
The user then selects the type of operation to be conducted in the next 24, 48, and 72 hours (as it is projected by the S3) and the spreadsheet applies the multipliers derived from OPLOG or historic data to the current consumption rate. Doing so allows the user to see the projected Deltas that will be required to sustain the troops. It also displays the amount of time at the selected operation types before a unit will run out of supplies without resupply.
A Helpful Interface and a Little Magic
We simplified the interface through the use of a calculation worksheet labeled “MAGIC,” where all of the calculations are actually completed using Excel logic. Sheet locking allows the user to only permit changes to the data entry fields, preventing the #notfound that occurs when errant copying and pasting disturbs the internal logic of the spreadsheets. This ensures only deliberate changes to the multipliers and logic chains.
CAVLOG goes on to use the troop data to produce a Squadron Rollup and Projection page. A historic log-sheet allows the CAVLOG user to store the squadron’s consumption rates and mission types throughout an operation. We built this log-sheet into an Excel spreadsheet to calculate projections based on multipliers. Thus, users can easily manipulate the multipliers. The greatest strength of CAVLOG’s architecture is that these OPLOG based estimates can eventually be replaced by real data from the owning unit itself. The level of specificity a unit can achieve through the accumulation of data from their operations is what sets OPLOG apart from similar unit created projection tools being used.
Assumptions
In the creation of CAVLOG we set out with two objectives. One, to create a product that fulfilled tracking and reporting requirements in an easier way while providing added functionality. Two, to do so with simplicity, thereby creating a product thats ease of use enables lower echelons to implement it without unnecessary obstacles. Our objectives required the use of our method to generate predictions, but it also forced us to accept a few assumptions.
Our chief assumption being that the use of Delta values and simplified consumption ratios is the most efficient way to project logistics requirements at the tactical level. We assume that the use of Deltas and ratios encapsulates myriad situational factors (i.e. weather, terrain) that would otherwise affect fixed consumption values. Since users forecast projections for a relatively short time period and within a finite area of operations, we can assume a level of accuracy to the method. It is worth noting that CAVLOG does not include ammunition projections because of the highly variable nature of its consumption. Recognizing that the tool is limited in its ability to account for dramatic situational changes, error in projections can be mitigated through the diligence, experience, and analysis of the user.
Vertical Integration
The Army already has an array of logistics projection tools, to include OPLOG, BCS3, and Logistic Estimate Worksheet. CAVLOG does not replace the greater functionality of these assets. Instead, CAVLOG helps users improve a process already conducted at the CTCP to provide commanders with a snapshot of their logistics at any given time on the battlefield, and improve operations planning by providing unit-specific historical data. The CAVLOG utilizes a ubiquitous program (Excel); does not require specific platforms, authorizations, or permissions; and requires less specific training to execute. This makes the program more effective at the troop and squadron-levels. The program itself is under 100KB, allowing for easy transmission over low bandwidth. Rather than replace higher echelon programs, CAVLOG has the ability to help bridge the tactical-operational gap. It provides accurate projections and requests from the unit for use in BCS3 at the brigade level.
The Way Ahead
Interoperability & Analytics
CAVLOG is exportable to any formation. The user can re-label the multipliers from neutral, reconnaissance, and security to any other mission set. The ratios themselves are reproducible for different formations and actions by rerunning OPLOG validations. As you classify and stow real consumption data in the spreadsheet during operations, you can calculate new averages of change for unit specificity. The longer you use the program the more specific it can become, allowing the S4 to project consumption by training or combat area, mission set, or common event.
The eventual replacement of OPLOG data with the Historic Log is perhaps the strongest feature of the program. By tailoring consumption ratios to the specific unit, projections become more accurate over time. This specificity is what we believe sets CAVLOG apart.
We recognize that good logistics forecasts are not simply the realm of science. Experienced commanders, NCOs, and logisticians will have to apply their experience, and knowledge of their current operation, to hone the CAVLOG predictions. CAVLOG is a tool that enables leaders to spend their time fine-tuning their logistics, and not simply crunching numbers. The Historic Log also provides feedback by which to gauge the accuracy of assumptions and unit plans.
CAVLOG in Action
Lest the reader think this was simply a theoretical document never put to use, we did in fact employ it. We used it in an SBCT Cavalry Squadron through our train-up for an NTC DATE rotation. We then used the data we collected to employ the CAVLOG in our CTCP during the NTC Rotation. As expected, the numbers became more and more reliable as we honed through throughout the rotation in the box. They were never perfect, but they allowed a more reliable baseline to assist our leaders in making analytical and informed projections. Our unit completed an NTC rotation with the same command team and many of the same leaders just nine months earlier. This gave us the ability to compare results and experiences.
During this rotation, we achieved a 100% reporting rate across all logistics and requirements. Our projections allowed us to maintain our resupply rates. We never went “black,” and stayed lean forward – never burdening the troops with more than they needed. While CAVLOG was not the only change we made since the previous rotation (e.g. standing up an FSC, improving our reporting systems and SOPs, benefiting from stability of leadership, etc.) it was an undeniable factor in our success.
Paramount to even the CAVLOG and the leaders at the CTCP, was the timely and accurate reporting from the troops. CAVLOG is an analytical and numbers based system. Like any system, what you get out of it is only as good as what you put into it.
Call for Feedback
We intend for leaders across the force to put this tool to the test and help us fine-tune it. Provide your feedback. We hope to see multiple variations of CAVLOG manipulated to fit other formations across branch and BCT-types. This will not only improve operations in the field, but provide more accurate Logistics Estimates during MDMP. Improved accuracy will increase responsiveness of supporting units to our requests. Ultimately, it will help units deliver sustainment to the warfighter on the screen-line. We welcome other units to use CAVLOG and provide feedback for its improvement.
Click HERE to Download the CAVLOG.
Click HERE for the Powerpoint Guide to the CAVLOG.
Gregor MacGregor is a graduate of the University of Colorado at Boulder, class of 2012. He is an Armor Officer who has served in the 7th and 14th Cavalry Regiments. He is currently completing his second year of law school as part of the Army’s Funded Legal Education Program. You can contact him via Linked In, HERE.
Nigel Liefveld is a graduate of the United States Military Academy. He is an Armor Officer served in 1st Squadron, 14th Cavalry Regiment. He recently graduated the Maneuver Captains Career Course and is assigned to 3rd ABCT, 1st CAV DIV. You can contact him HERE.
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